It may be that rugby supporters, let alone anyone else, struggle to understand the format of the upcoming final stages of the Nations Championship, but there is a unique opportunity over the coming weeks. The top 12 rugby nations in the world will be fine-tuning their pre World Cup ideas, trying to build some momentum. While the winner will take bragging rights and plenty of kudos as well as a shiny new shield, the coaches and squads know there is a bigger prize at stake.
There is no doubting that scrutiny will be on the hosts, who are already without their first choice half backs Smith and Mitchell with Mitchell's club colleague and peer, Archie MacParland, also suffering from injury. With our two best No 8's cooling off in SW France and some issues around hooker and centre, these are trying times for Borthwick and his coaching team. In a nicely timed moment of PR and barely contained disappointment, Shaun Edwards revealed that he would have done almost anything to be on the England coaching ticket. Being turned down by Borthwick was hardly surprising but his potential influence creates further pressure for a coaching defence team which has presided over some leaky performances by an England side who are not being given extra lessons at club level either. I am particularly interested to see how the midfield and wide defence shape up because every opposition - e.g. Australia on Sunday and New Zealand on the 21st- will be talking through whether every ball goes wide on the law of averages that they will score a hatful of tries and can England respond?!
Well they probably can, if Marcus Smith and George Furbank operate the 10-15 Axis and are given full licence. A man I hugely respect, Jerry Guscott, suggested that George Ford should play if Fin Smith is unfit. Rather surprising to read and I prefer to go with our own former club and International fly-half, Stuart Barnes, who can see that we must play with no fear and at pace and plumps for Smith. Ford's ship has undoubtedly sailed in that regard. I give up on the outside centre position, draw anyone of four to play with Seb Atkinson. The only certainty is that this will not be the final word but there must be defensive nous out there. Marchant needs a while more to prove the case, although his porous performance down at Bath last week was not assisted by Ford and Lozowski. The other big issue is the back row where the Curry Brothers lack pace and look off the pace, and Earl needs to pass more. As for Pollock, who knows really but start him and if he can turn 20 minute cameos into the real thing then great. Coles and Chessum are our stand out locks and in awesome form, playing with pace and aggression that have been all too lacking in recent England forward displays. I can understand that one of them goes to flank to accommodate Itoje.
I do not often go into selection detail as I have here, but Borthwick has put his players on notice that he wants results as well as performances... so the stakes are high indeed, because in terms of World Cup planning, whatever he says, it is hard to see an identity and a necessary core of top players in key positions. That is why this round of matches matter more for him than any other nation.
I forgot to include a key law change from last week's piece about scrum and maul issues and to restate my agreement with Wayne Smith. As he said, not only must the rolling maul laws be (again) reworked, but when an attacking team kick for the corner, we must go back to a defending team throw in. This will change many nuances in the game, and be extremely welcome for all of us. No more preconceived scrum penalty/ignore kick at goal/line out/maul/ obstruction/ perceived or engineered collapse/ penalty try/yellow card... so so boring and a turn off for all spectators other than forwards coaches and David Flatman(!). Come on World Rugby, do it now!
Going forward, I am going to include a weekly note on all the off-field shenanigans because if I don't I will miss something. The financial health of the game remains volatile, in a week when the Saints turned a small profit (hurrah) and their neighbours posted a £5m loss, and Wales once again showed the tightness of their financial straitjacket. The US ('there is value in ignorance') investment community is now being wooed for their dollars, and we all know that the idea of an idea of some upside can be enough to bring in much needed funds from that part of the world, even if World Cup 2031 may be a red herring in many ways. It was interesting timing to market the Red Roses when they had just lost two on the bounce against the crowdfunding part timers from Canada, who have shown true value for money. No doubt however that the extra competition is just what the women's game needs. Sophie De Goede, the try-scoring Canadian Captain, has become an icon of the game. She is now studying at Cambridge and will soon be looking to the Varsity Match on Feb 28th at the Stonex, home of the Saracens. This will attract much attention as will the presence of Luke Whitelock, All Black lock , who is taking up residence at Oxford this term. Intense rivalry and the ultimate 'score to settle' will not change for a Varsity rugby player and supporters, whatever the era. The double-header will be a top day out for one of the most historic fixtures in the rugby calendar.
Meantime the thought of an Anglo-Welsh club get together gathers pace in the media, which has brought predictably furious denials from various administrators - no minutes exist, we only had a few coffee room chats, promise. I and many others were brought up in rugby terms in the Valleys, learning our skills under those pressures and gathering up the value of such mighty contests. I will not say I was scared going into Bath v Neath at the Gnoll when they had 13 current Internationals (or even when they didn't) but you did grow up very fast as a player in such a pressure cooker and they were box-office. Who would not want more of that somehow, as player, supporter, broadcaster, bank manager? As long as someone can lay down a clean sheet of paper... but life is not like that, and there are alternatives to that proposal which should be given room to develop.
For the Champ clubs, where I have enough involvement to comment, their own destiny lies ahead as long as there is oxygen to breathe ( I mean growth funding of course) because they have everything else, the narrative, the community, the history, the financial prudence. I sense that in the recasting of the landscape, which is coming, these clubs, which are steeped in the history of rugby in our lands, will have more than a passing say in the outcome.
What is certain is that in the coming days, the cognoscenti of World Rugby will be wrestling with these issues and more. Is there a chance that some common ground can be seeded, let us stay relentlessly optimistic as the double World Cup Champions come to town. The Springboks,light of a few superstars, are still awesomely strong. They will be well supported by a huge cohort of SA London residents and remain the trailblazers as 2027 hoves into view, but England will be the talking point in the car parks and nearby pubs and bars.
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